NFL Week 14 · Matchup Intelligence
HOU at WAS
Sunday, December 13 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
HOU 25 · WAS 22
Win probability
WAS 36.3%
HOU 63.7%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
HOU · Elo 1533
Offense EPA/play -0.042 · Defense EPA/play -0.046
Offense success 44.1% · Defense success 40.6%
WAS · Elo 1445
Offense EPA/play 0.020 · Defense EPA/play 0.122
Offense success 47.9% · Defense success 50.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward WAS; negative values lean toward HOU.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
HOU · -0.099
Pressure matchup
HOU · -0.007
Explosive-play matchup
HOU · -0.004
Third-down matchup
WAS · 0.006
Red-zone matchup
WAS · 0.316
QB intelligence
HOU · -0.173
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
HOU · C.Stroud
199 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.089 · CPOE 2.5
WAS · J.Daniels
84 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.020 · CPOE 2.1
Prediction range
HOU: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–37
WAS: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
Recent form
HOU 26 · TEN 3
NYG 27 · WAS 27
DAL 34 · HOU 30
IND 30 · WAS 13
SEA 31 · WAS 33
HOU 17 · IND 19
CIN 20 · HOU 6
WAS 20 · DAL 37
BUF 36 · HOU 31
WAS 22 · PHI 24
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT