NFL Week 14 · Matchup Intelligence
IND at PHI
Sunday, December 13 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
IND 22 · PHI 24
Win probability
PHI 57.9%
IND 42.1%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
IND · Elo 1438
Offense EPA/play 0.051 · Defense EPA/play 0.088
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 50.9%
PHI · Elo 1643
Offense EPA/play 0.021 · Defense EPA/play -0.032
Offense success 44.5% · Defense success 44.4%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward PHI; negative values lean toward IND.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
IND · -0.028
Pressure matchup
PHI · 0.029
Explosive-play matchup
IND · -0.001
Third-down matchup
PHI · 0.016
Red-zone matchup
IND · -0.270
QB intelligence
PHI · 0.034
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
IND · D.Jones
185 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.130 · CPOE -2.4
PHI · J.Hurts
167 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.058 · CPOE -2.2
Prediction range
IND: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
PHI: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–37
Recent form
IND 22 · PIT 34
PHI 17 · JAX 19
LA 24 · PHI 20
IND 30 · WAS 13
PHI 7 · CHI 27
HOU 17 · IND 19
IND 30 · KC 33
PHI 24 · TEN 20
WAS 22 · PHI 24
BAL 41 · IND 23
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT