NFL Week 14 · Matchup Intelligence
IND at PHI
Sunday, December 13 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
IND 22 · PHI 24
Win probability
PHI 55.8%
IND 44.2%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
IND · Elo 1438
Offense EPA/play 0.051 · Defense EPA/play 0.088
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 50.9%
PHI · Elo 1643
Offense EPA/play 0.021 · Defense EPA/play -0.032
Offense success 44.5% · Defense success 44.4%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward PHI; negative values lean toward IND.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
IND · -0.035
Pressure matchup
PHI · 0.063
Explosive-play matchup
IND · -0.004
Third-down matchup
PHI · 0.030
Red-zone matchup
PHI · 0.149
QB intelligence
PHI · 0.091
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
IND · D.Jones
290 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.182 · CPOE -3.7
PHI · J.Hurts
167 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.058 · CPOE -2.2
Prediction range
IND: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
PHI: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–36
Recent form
PHI 10 · WAS 27
IND 7 · JAX 42
DAL 38 · PHI 21
IND 10 · MIN 16
CAR 25 · PHI 14
TEN 26 · IND 20
IND 22 · PIT 34
PHI 17 · JAX 19
LA 24 · PHI 20
IND 30 · WAS 13
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST