NFL Week 14 · Matchup Intelligence
KC at CIN
Sunday, December 13 at 4:25 PM EST
Projected score
KC 22 · CIN 24
Win probability
CIN 54.7%
KC 45.3%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
CIN · Elo 1520
Offense EPA/play 0.017 · Defense EPA/play -0.008
Offense success 46.4% · Defense success 47.3%
KC · Elo 1621
Offense EPA/play 0.055 · Defense EPA/play -0.008
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 47.5%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward CIN; negative values lean toward KC.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
CIN · 0.002
Pressure matchup
KC · -0.026
Explosive-play matchup
KC · -0.021
Third-down matchup
CIN · 0.182
Red-zone matchup
CIN · 0.199
QB intelligence
CIN · 0.209
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
CIN · J.Burrow
281 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.242 · CPOE 9.0
KC · P.Mahomes
242 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.138 · CPOE 1.6
Prediction range
KC: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–35
CIN: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–37
Recent form
KC 24 · DEN 28
TEN 36 · CIN 43
KC 3 · SEA 20
CIN 35 · BAL 13
LAC 6 · KC 22
CIN 31 · MIA 24
KC 30 · LV 27
JAX 22 · CIN 17
KC 24 · MIA 10
CIN 27 · PIT 30
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST