NFL Week 14 · Matchup Intelligence
LAC at LV
Sunday, December 13 at 4:05 PM EST
Projected score
LAC 21 · LV 24
Win probability
LV 57.9%
LAC 42.1%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
LAC · Elo 1499
Offense EPA/play -0.113 · Defense EPA/play -0.041
Offense success 43.0% · Defense success 44.0%
LV · Elo 1358
Offense EPA/play -0.117 · Defense EPA/play -0.041
Offense success 43.6% · Defense success 44.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward LV; negative values lean toward LAC.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
LV · 0.010
Pressure matchup
LV · 0.023
Explosive-play matchup
LAC · -0.005
Third-down matchup
LV · 0.082
Red-zone matchup
LV · 0.053
QB intelligence
LV · 0.371
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
LAC · J.Herbert
160 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.193 · CPOE -4.5
LV · K.Cousins
183 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.188 · CPOE 1.4
Prediction range
LAC: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–34
LV: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–36
Recent form
DEN 23 · LAC 17
LV 17 · NE 45
KC 30 · LV 27
LAC 23 · SEA 30
LV 35 · NO 27
LAC 16 · BUF 24
LV 26 · LAC 14
ARI 26 · LAC 14
MIA 13 · LV 27
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT