NFL Week 14 · Matchup Intelligence
LA at SF
Sunday, December 13 at 4:25 PM EST
Projected score
LA 22 · SF 27
Win probability
SF 68.0%
LA 32.0%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
LA · Elo 1591
Offense EPA/play 0.040 · Defense EPA/play 0.025
Offense success 50.4% · Defense success 48.9%
SF · Elo 1596
Offense EPA/play 0.074 · Defense EPA/play -0.009
Offense success 51.6% · Defense success 48.6%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward SF; negative values lean toward LA.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
SF · 0.085
Pressure matchup
SF · 0.015
Explosive-play matchup
LA · -0.002
Third-down matchup
SF · 0.131
Red-zone matchup
SF · 0.500
QB intelligence
SF · 0.273
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
LA · M.Stafford
224 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.142 · CPOE 0.3
SF · B.Purdy
146 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.394 · CPOE 4.7
Prediction range
LA: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
SF: median 27, 10th–90th percentile 15–39
Recent form
BUF 37 · LA 34
SF 32 · SEA 29
DEN 14 · SF 24
LA 24 · PHI 20
LA 26 · DEN 30
ARI 30 · SF 36
NYG 6 · LA 28
MIA 13 · SF 35
SF 27 · LA 7
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT