NFL Week 14 · Matchup Intelligence
MIN at NE
Thursday, December 10 at 8:15 PM EST
Projected score
MIN 19 · NE 21
Win probability
NE 63.3%
MIN 36.7%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
MIN · Elo 1583
Offense EPA/play -0.031 · Defense EPA/play -0.092
Offense success 44.5% · Defense success 43.3%
NE · Elo 1544
Offense EPA/play 0.009 · Defense EPA/play -0.096
Offense success 46.6% · Defense success 44.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward NE; negative values lean toward MIN.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
NE · 0.019
Pressure matchup
NE · 0.063
Explosive-play matchup
NE · 0.015
Third-down matchup
NE · 0.129
Red-zone matchup
NE · 0.048
QB intelligence
NE · 0.182
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
MIN · K.Murray
110 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.076 · CPOE 5.7
NE · D.Maye
163 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.125 · CPOE 6.7
Prediction range
MIN: median 19, 10th–90th percentile 7–31
NE: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–34
Recent form
LV 17 · NE 45
MIN 23 · NO 13
MIA 10 · MIN 15
NE 29 · BUF 26
MIN 23 · TB 16
NE 6 · JAX 35
MIN 9 · CHI 3
PIT 3 · NE 20
GB 22 · MIN 39
NE 10 · SEA 13
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT