NFL Week 14 · Matchup Intelligence
NO at CAR
Sunday, December 13 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
NO 23 · CAR 26
Win probability
CAR 62.6%
NO 37.4%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
CAR · Elo 1384
Offense EPA/play -0.002 · Defense EPA/play 0.012
Offense success 46.3% · Defense success 47.3%
NO · Elo 1415
Offense EPA/play -0.065 · Defense EPA/play -0.034
Offense success 44.0% · Defense success 45.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward CAR; negative values lean toward NO.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
CAR · 0.021
Pressure matchup
CAR · 0.003
Explosive-play matchup
CAR · 0.028
Third-down matchup
CAR · 0.001
Red-zone matchup
CAR · 0.224
QB intelligence
NO · -0.007
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
CAR · B.Young
294 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.059 · CPOE -0.2
NO · T.Shough
289 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.018 · CPOE -0.1
Prediction range
NO: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
CAR: median 26, 10th–90th percentile 14–38
Recent form
CAR 19 · GB 27
TB 43 · CAR 13
PIT 16 · NO 10
NO 34 · NYG 27
CAR 25 · PHI 14
MIN 23 · NO 13
ATL 45 · NO 24
DET 26 · CAR 32
LV 35 · NO 27
CAR 18 · CLE 21
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST