NFL Week 14 · Matchup Intelligence
PIT at JAX
Monday, December 14 at 8:15 PM EST
Projected score
PIT 19 · JAX 25
Win probability
JAX 72.4%
PIT 27.6%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
JAX · Elo 1481
Offense EPA/play 0.085 · Defense EPA/play -0.036
Offense success 51.4% · Defense success 45.5%
PIT · Elo 1549
Offense EPA/play -0.099 · Defense EPA/play -0.059
Offense success 43.8% · Defense success 44.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward JAX; negative values lean toward PIT.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
JAX · 0.147
Pressure matchup
PIT · -0.003
Explosive-play matchup
JAX · 0.014
Third-down matchup
JAX · 0.082
Red-zone matchup
JAX · 0.150
QB intelligence
JAX · 0.369
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
JAX · T.Lawrence
154 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.272 · CPOE 5.9
PIT · A.Rodgers
199 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.071 · CPOE -2.5
Prediction range
PIT: median 19, 10th–90th percentile 7–31
JAX: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–37
Recent form
IND 22 · PIT 34
PHI 17 · JAX 19
JAX 22 · CIN 17
PIT 24 · CLE 27
NE 6 · JAX 35
CIN 27 · PIT 30
JAX 13 · DEN 20
PIT 3 · NE 20
ATL 13 · PIT 20
CLE 10 · JAX 34
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT