NFL Week 14 · Matchup Intelligence
TB at BAL
Sunday, December 13 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
TB 20 · BAL 27
Win probability
BAL 77.3%
TB 22.7%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
BAL · Elo 1591
Offense EPA/play 0.084 · Defense EPA/play -0.018
Offense success 48.9% · Defense success 46.2%
TB · Elo 1489
Offense EPA/play 0.004 · Defense EPA/play 0.029
Offense success 48.1% · Defense success 49.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward BAL; negative values lean toward TB.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
BAL · 0.093
Pressure matchup
TB · -0.051
Explosive-play matchup
BAL · 0.008
Third-down matchup
BAL · 0.014
Red-zone matchup
TB · -0.032
QB intelligence
BAL · 0.473
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
BAL · L.Jackson
103 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.363 · CPOE 8.1
TB · B.Mayfield
109 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.274 · CPOE 0.3
Prediction range
TB: median 20, 10th–90th percentile 8–33
BAL: median 27, 10th–90th percentile 15–39
Recent form
BAL 30 · ATL 23
TB 24 · DAL 16
TEN 18 · BAL 24
GB 17 · TB 14
BAL 34 · DAL 31
MIN 23 · TB 16
CLE 23 · TB 19
NO 24 · BAL 17
BAL 41 · IND 23
TB 27 · CIN 33
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT