NFL Week 14 · Matchup Intelligence
TB at BAL
Sunday, December 13 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
TB 22 · BAL 23
Win probability
BAL 58.9%
TB 41.1%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
BAL · Elo 1591
Offense EPA/play 0.084 · Defense EPA/play -0.018
Offense success 48.9% · Defense success 46.2%
TB · Elo 1489
Offense EPA/play 0.004 · Defense EPA/play 0.029
Offense success 48.1% · Defense success 49.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward BAL; negative values lean toward TB.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
TB · -0.091
Pressure matchup
TB · -0.087
Explosive-play matchup
TB · -0.002
Third-down matchup
BAL · 0.023
Red-zone matchup
BAL · 0.326
QB intelligence
BAL · 0.515
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
BAL · T.Huntley
122 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.020 · CPOE 0.9
TB · B.Mayfield
124 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.248 · CPOE -0.9
Prediction range
TB: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
BAL: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
Recent form
BAL 10 · BUF 36
ATL 0 · TB 16
CIN 35 · BAL 13
TB 43 · CAR 13
BAL 10 · CLE 13
PIT 26 · TB 19
BAL 30 · ATL 23
TB 24 · DAL 16
GB 17 · TB 14
TEN 18 · BAL 24
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST