NFL Week 14 · Matchup Intelligence
TEN at DET
Sunday, December 13 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
TEN 19 · DET 29
Win probability
DET 83.0%
TEN 17.0%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
DET · Elo 1592
Offense EPA/play 0.079 · Defense EPA/play 0.077
Offense success 49.8% · Defense success 48.0%
TEN · Elo 1309
Offense EPA/play -0.086 · Defense EPA/play 0.075
Offense success 44.4% · Defense success 47.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward DET; negative values lean toward TEN.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
DET · 0.226
Pressure matchup
TEN · -0.076
Explosive-play matchup
TEN · -0.002
Third-down matchup
DET · 0.133
Red-zone matchup
DET · 0.229
QB intelligence
DET · 0.495
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
DET · J.Goff
202 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.323 · CPOE 1.3
TEN · C.Ward
166 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.183 · CPOE 1.6
Prediction range
TEN: median 19, 10th–90th percentile 7–32
DET: median 29, 10th–90th percentile 17–41
Recent form
DET 45 · ARI 21
HOU 26 · TEN 3
DET 26 · CAR 32
TEN 18 · BAL 24
TEN 7 · NYG 12
NYJ 24 · DET 31
PHI 24 · TEN 20
DET 31 · BUF 41
NO 30 · DET 31
NYJ 23 · TEN 10
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT