NFL Week 15 · Matchup Intelligence
ATL at WAS
Sunday, December 20 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
ATL 25 · WAS 24
Win probability
WAS 42.7%
ATL 57.3%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
ATL · Elo 1430
Offense EPA/play -0.168 · Defense EPA/play -0.030
Offense success 43.0% · Defense success 45.1%
WAS · Elo 1445
Offense EPA/play 0.020 · Defense EPA/play 0.122
Offense success 47.9% · Defense success 50.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward WAS; negative values lean toward ATL.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
ATL · -0.045
Pressure matchup
ATL · -0.014
Explosive-play matchup
ATL · -0.008
Third-down matchup
ATL · -0.051
Red-zone matchup
WAS · 0.179
QB intelligence
ATL · -0.007
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
ATL · M.Penix
82 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.339 · CPOE 1.1
WAS · J.Daniels
84 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.020 · CPOE 2.1
Prediction range
ATL: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–37
WAS: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–36
Recent form
BAL 30 · ATL 23
NYG 27 · WAS 27
ATL 45 · NO 24
IND 30 · WAS 13
SEA 31 · WAS 33
ATL 35 · GB 14
CAR 34 · ATL 3
WAS 20 · DAL 37
WAS 22 · PHI 24
ATL 13 · PIT 20
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT