NFL Week 15 · Matchup Intelligence
BAL at PIT
Sunday, December 20 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
BAL 20 · PIT 24
Win probability
PIT 59.0%
BAL 41.0%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
BAL · Elo 1591
Offense EPA/play 0.084 · Defense EPA/play -0.018
Offense success 48.9% · Defense success 46.2%
PIT · Elo 1549
Offense EPA/play -0.099 · Defense EPA/play -0.059
Offense success 43.8% · Defense success 44.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward PIT; negative values lean toward BAL.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
PIT · 0.074
Pressure matchup
PIT · 0.038
Explosive-play matchup
PIT · 0.001
Third-down matchup
BAL · -0.016
Red-zone matchup
BAL · -0.449
QB intelligence
BAL · -0.247
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
BAL · T.Huntley
122 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.020 · CPOE 0.9
PIT · A.Rodgers
312 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.095 · CPOE -1.9
Prediction range
BAL: median 20, 10th–90th percentile 8–33
PIT: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–36
Recent form
CLE 6 · PIT 27
BAL 10 · BUF 36
CIN 35 · BAL 13
PIT 16 · NO 10
PIT 26 · TB 19
BAL 10 · CLE 13
BAL 30 · ATL 23
IND 22 · PIT 34
TEN 18 · BAL 24
PIT 24 · CLE 27
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST