NFL Week 15 · Matchup Intelligence
CHI at BUF
Saturday, December 19 at 8:20 PM EST
Projected score
CHI 23 · BUF 27
Win probability
BUF 71.5%
CHI 28.5%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
BUF · Elo 1673
Offense EPA/play 0.181 · Defense EPA/play 0.067
Offense success 50.7% · Defense success 49.8%
CHI · Elo 1486
Offense EPA/play 0.119 · Defense EPA/play 0.039
Offense success 49.3% · Defense success 47.8%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward BUF; negative values lean toward CHI.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
BUF · 0.068
Pressure matchup
BUF · 0.014
Explosive-play matchup
BUF · 0.023
Third-down matchup
BUF · 0.149
Red-zone matchup
BUF · 0.461
QB intelligence
BUF · 0.207
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
BUF · J.Allen
151 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.280 · CPOE 5.0
CHI · T.Bagent
68 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.077 · CPOE 1.3
Prediction range
CHI: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
BUF: median 27, 10th–90th percentile 15–40
Recent form
BUF 37 · LA 34
CHI 7 · GB 31
NE 29 · BUF 26
NYJ 12 · CHI 23
PHI 7 · CHI 27
LAC 16 · BUF 24
MIN 9 · CHI 3
DET 31 · BUF 41
CHI 59 · CAR 37
BUF 36 · HOU 31
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT