NFL Week 15 · Matchup Intelligence
CIN at CAR
Sunday, December 20 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
CIN 24 · CAR 25
Win probability
CAR 54.2%
CIN 45.8%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
CAR · Elo 1384
Offense EPA/play -0.002 · Defense EPA/play 0.012
Offense success 46.3% · Defense success 47.3%
CIN · Elo 1520
Offense EPA/play 0.017 · Defense EPA/play -0.008
Offense success 46.4% · Defense success 47.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward CAR; negative values lean toward CIN.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
CIN · -0.034
Pressure matchup
CAR · 0.069
Explosive-play matchup
CAR · 0.032
Third-down matchup
CIN · -0.102
Red-zone matchup
CAR · 0.218
QB intelligence
CAR · 0.031
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
CAR · B.Young
172 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.240 · CPOE 5.7
CIN · J.Burrow
198 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.166 · CPOE 6.0
Prediction range
CIN: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–36
CAR: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–38
Recent form
CIN 31 · MIA 24
DET 26 · CAR 32
JAX 22 · CIN 17
CIN 27 · PIT 30
CAR 18 · CLE 21
CAR 34 · ATL 3
CIN 20 · HOU 6
CHI 59 · CAR 37
TB 27 · CIN 33
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT