NFL Week 15 · Matchup Intelligence
CLE at NYG
Sunday, December 20 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
CLE 20 · NYG 23
Win probability
NYG 56.6%
CLE 43.4%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
CLE · Elo 1411
Offense EPA/play -0.108 · Defense EPA/play 0.003
Offense success 42.2% · Defense success 47.5%
NYG · Elo 1359
Offense EPA/play 0.003 · Defense EPA/play 0.088
Offense success 45.6% · Defense success 49.2%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward NYG; negative values lean toward CLE.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
CLE · -0.004
Pressure matchup
NYG · 0.068
Explosive-play matchup
CLE · -0.006
Third-down matchup
NYG · 0.126
Red-zone matchup
NYG · 0.155
QB intelligence
NYG · 0.043
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
CLE · D.Watson
168 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.024 · CPOE -2.4
NYG · J.Winston
144 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.057 · CPOE -5.9
Prediction range
CLE: median 20, 10th–90th percentile 8–32
NYG: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
Recent form
CLE 12 · NYJ 17
NYG 27 · WAS 27
ARI 24 · NYG 36
PIT 24 · CLE 27
TEN 7 · NYG 12
CAR 18 · CLE 21
NYG 6 · LA 28
CLE 23 · TB 19
CLE 10 · JAX 34
DAL 20 · NYG 28
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT