NFL Week 15 · Matchup Intelligence
DAL at LA
Sunday, December 20 at 4:25 PM EST
Projected score
DAL 24 · LA 28
Win probability
LA 67.7%
DAL 32.3%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
DAL · Elo 1481
Offense EPA/play 0.105 · Defense EPA/play 0.159
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 52.2%
LA · Elo 1591
Offense EPA/play 0.040 · Defense EPA/play 0.025
Offense success 50.4% · Defense success 48.9%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward LA; negative values lean toward DAL.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
LA · 0.083
Pressure matchup
DAL · -0.010
Explosive-play matchup
LA · 0.033
Third-down matchup
DAL · -0.139
Red-zone matchup
DAL · -0.406
QB intelligence
DAL · -0.070
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
DAL · D.Prescott
200 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.227 · CPOE 1.9
LA · M.Stafford
224 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.142 · CPOE 0.3
Prediction range
DAL: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–36
LA: median 28, 10th–90th percentile 16–40
Recent form
BUF 37 · LA 34
TB 24 · DAL 16
DAL 34 · HOU 30
LA 24 · PHI 20
LA 26 · DEN 30
BAL 34 · DAL 31
NYG 6 · LA 28
WAS 20 · DAL 37
DAL 20 · NYG 28
SF 27 · LA 7
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT