NFL Week 15 · Matchup Intelligence
DAL at LA
Sunday, December 20 at 4:25 PM EST
Projected score
DAL 23 · LA 27
Win probability
LA 64.8%
DAL 35.2%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
DAL · Elo 1481
Offense EPA/play 0.105 · Defense EPA/play 0.159
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 52.2%
LA · Elo 1591
Offense EPA/play 0.040 · Defense EPA/play 0.025
Offense success 50.4% · Defense success 48.9%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward LA; negative values lean toward DAL.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
LA · 0.059
Pressure matchup
LA · 0.004
Explosive-play matchup
LA · 0.018
Third-down matchup
DAL · -0.149
Red-zone matchup
DAL · -0.400
QB intelligence
DAL · -0.098
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
DAL · D.Prescott
316 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.165 · CPOE 0.2
LA · M.Stafford
317 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.094 · CPOE 0.6
Prediction range
DAL: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
LA: median 27, 10th–90th percentile 15–40
Recent form
LAC 9 · LA 24
ARI 33 · DAL 30
DAL 38 · PHI 21
LA 35 · LV 21
DAL 13 · GB 23
ARI 18 · LA 16
BUF 37 · LA 34
TB 24 · DAL 16
DAL 34 · HOU 30
LA 24 · PHI 20
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST