NFL Week 15 · Matchup Intelligence
DET at MIN
Sunday, December 20 at 8:20 PM EST
Projected score
DET 23 · MIN 25
Win probability
MIN 52.9%
DET 47.1%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
DET · Elo 1592
Offense EPA/play 0.079 · Defense EPA/play 0.077
Offense success 49.8% · Defense success 48.0%
MIN · Elo 1583
Offense EPA/play -0.031 · Defense EPA/play -0.092
Offense success 44.5% · Defense success 43.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward MIN; negative values lean toward DET.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
MIN · 0.049
Pressure matchup
DET · -0.031
Explosive-play matchup
MIN · 0.014
Third-down matchup
DET · -0.228
Red-zone matchup
DET · -0.817
QB intelligence
DET · -0.332
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
DET · J.Goff
202 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.323 · CPOE 1.3
MIN · K.Murray
110 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.076 · CPOE 5.7
Prediction range
DET: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
MIN: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–37
Recent form
DET 45 · ARI 21
MIN 23 · NO 13
DET 26 · CAR 32
MIA 10 · MIN 15
MIN 23 · TB 16
NYJ 24 · DET 31
MIN 9 · CHI 3
DET 31 · BUF 41
NO 30 · DET 31
GB 22 · MIN 39
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT