NFL Week 15 · Matchup Intelligence
DET at MIN
Sunday, December 20 at 8:20 PM EST
Projected score
DET 21 · MIN 23
Win probability
MIN 51.8%
DET 48.2%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
DET · Elo 1592
Offense EPA/play 0.079 · Defense EPA/play 0.077
Offense success 49.8% · Defense success 48.0%
MIN · Elo 1583
Offense EPA/play -0.031 · Defense EPA/play -0.092
Offense success 44.5% · Defense success 43.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward MIN; negative values lean toward DET.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
MIN · 0.020
Pressure matchup
DET · -0.055
Explosive-play matchup
MIN · 0.027
Third-down matchup
DET · -0.168
Red-zone matchup
DET · -0.497
QB intelligence
DET · -0.266
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
DET · J.Goff
264 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.266 · CPOE 1.1
MIN · K.Murray
170 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.059 · CPOE 2.0
Prediction range
DET: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–34
MIN: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
Recent form
MIN 15 · DET 19
GB 17 · DET 20
IND 10 · MIN 16
DET 45 · ARI 21
MIN 23 · NO 13
DET 26 · CAR 32
MIA 10 · MIN 15
MIN 23 · TB 16
NYJ 24 · DET 31
MIN 9 · CHI 3
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST