NFL Week 15 · Matchup Intelligence
IND at TEN
Sunday, December 20 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
IND 24 · TEN 23
Win probability
TEN 47.2%
IND 52.8%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
IND · Elo 1438
Offense EPA/play 0.051 · Defense EPA/play 0.088
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 50.9%
TEN · Elo 1309
Offense EPA/play -0.086 · Defense EPA/play 0.075
Offense success 44.4% · Defense success 47.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward TEN; negative values lean toward IND.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
IND · -0.062
Pressure matchup
TEN · 0.035
Explosive-play matchup
TEN · 0.001
Third-down matchup
TEN · 0.031
Red-zone matchup
TEN · 0.128
QB intelligence
TEN · 0.143
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
IND · D.Jones
290 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.182 · CPOE -3.7
TEN · C.Ward
263 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.074 · CPOE -0.9
Prediction range
IND: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–36
TEN: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
Recent form
TEN 36 · CIN 43
IND 7 · JAX 42
IND 10 · MIN 16
CLE 27 · TEN 24
TEN 26 · IND 20
IND 22 · PIT 34
HOU 26 · TEN 3
TEN 18 · BAL 24
IND 30 · WAS 13
HOU 17 · IND 19
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST