NFL Week 15 · Matchup Intelligence
MIA at GB
Sunday, December 20 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
MIA 18 · GB 25
Win probability
GB 77.6%
MIA 22.4%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
GB · Elo 1558
Offense EPA/play 0.022 · Defense EPA/play 0.032
Offense success 46.2% · Defense success 46.0%
MIA · Elo 1461
Offense EPA/play -0.052 · Defense EPA/play 0.096
Offense success 44.3% · Defense success 50.6%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward GB; negative values lean toward MIA.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
GB · 0.151
Pressure matchup
MIA · -0.026
Explosive-play matchup
GB · 0.031
Third-down matchup
MIA · -0.084
Red-zone matchup
MIA · -0.220
QB intelligence
GB · 0.266
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
GB · J.Love
327 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.141 · CPOE -1.1
MIA · M.Willis
206 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.070 · CPOE -5.4
Prediction range
MIA: median 18, 10th–90th percentile 6–30
GB: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–38
Recent form
NE 24 · MIA 19
CAR 19 · GB 27
GB 17 · DET 20
MIA 28 · NYJ 25
DAL 13 · GB 23
CIN 31 · MIA 24
CHI 7 · GB 31
MIA 10 · MIN 15
GB 17 · TB 14
KC 24 · MIA 10
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST