NFL Week 15 · Matchup Intelligence
NE at KC
Monday, December 21 at 8:15 PM EST
Projected score
NE 21 · KC 23
Win probability
KC 53.9%
NE 46.1%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
KC · Elo 1621
Offense EPA/play 0.055 · Defense EPA/play -0.008
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 47.5%
NE · Elo 1544
Offense EPA/play 0.009 · Defense EPA/play -0.096
Offense success 46.6% · Defense success 44.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward KC; negative values lean toward NE.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
NE · -0.033
Pressure matchup
NE · -0.010
Explosive-play matchup
NE · -0.006
Third-down matchup
KC · 0.042
Red-zone matchup
KC · 0.477
QB intelligence
NE · -0.020
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
KC · P.Mahomes
135 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.191 · CPOE 0.8
NE · D.Maye
163 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.125 · CPOE 6.7
Prediction range
NE: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–33
KC: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
Recent form
LV 17 · NE 45
KC 30 · LV 27
NE 29 · BUF 26
NE 6 · JAX 35
KC 24 · MIA 10
IND 30 · KC 33
PIT 3 · NE 20
DEN 10 · KC 31
NE 10 · SEA 13
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT