NFL Week 15 · Matchup Intelligence
NO at TB
Sunday, December 20 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
NO 20 · TB 25
Win probability
TB 65.7%
NO 34.3%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
NO · Elo 1415
Offense EPA/play -0.065 · Defense EPA/play -0.034
Offense success 44.0% · Defense success 45.3%
TB · Elo 1489
Offense EPA/play 0.004 · Defense EPA/play 0.029
Offense success 48.1% · Defense success 49.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward TB; negative values lean toward NO.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
TB · 0.124
Pressure matchup
TB · 0.009
Explosive-play matchup
TB · 0.018
Third-down matchup
NO · -0.105
Red-zone matchup
NO · -0.236
QB intelligence
NO · -0.351
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
NO · T.Shough
289 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.018 · CPOE -0.1
TB · B.Mayfield
124 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.248 · CPOE -0.9
Prediction range
NO: median 20, 10th–90th percentile 8–32
TB: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–37
Recent form
ATL 0 · TB 16
TB 43 · CAR 13
PIT 16 · NO 10
NO 34 · NYG 27
PIT 26 · TB 19
MIN 23 · NO 13
TB 24 · DAL 16
ATL 45 · NO 24
GB 17 · TB 14
LV 35 · NO 27
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST