NFL Week 15 · Matchup Intelligence
NYJ at ARI
Sunday, December 20 at 4:05 PM EST
Projected score
NYJ 23 · ARI 24
Win probability
ARI 55.0%
NYJ 45.0%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
ARI · Elo 1373
Offense EPA/play -0.003 · Defense EPA/play 0.020
Offense success 46.8% · Defense success 48.1%
NYJ · Elo 1337
Offense EPA/play -0.047 · Defense EPA/play 0.030
Offense success 44.9% · Defense success 47.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward ARI; negative values lean toward NYJ.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
NYJ · -0.027
Pressure matchup
ARI · 0.030
Explosive-play matchup
NYJ · -0.019
Third-down matchup
ARI · 0.145
Red-zone matchup
ARI · 0.271
QB intelligence
NYJ · -0.025
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
ARI · J.Brissett
211 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.020 · CPOE 2.0
NYJ · G.Smith
165 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.053 · CPOE 4.4
Prediction range
NYJ: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
ARI: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–36
Recent form
DET 45 · ARI 21
CLE 12 · NYJ 17
NYJ 12 · CHI 23
ARI 24 · NYG 36
ARI 30 · SF 36
NYJ 24 · DET 31
GB 20 · NYJ 17
SEA 31 · ARI 7
ARI 26 · LAC 14
NYJ 23 · TEN 10
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT