NFL Week 15 · Matchup Intelligence
SEA at PHI
Saturday, December 19 at 5:00 PM EST
Projected score
SEA 23 · PHI 20
Win probability
PHI 36.3%
SEA 63.7%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
PHI · Elo 1643
Offense EPA/play 0.021 · Defense EPA/play -0.032
Offense success 44.5% · Defense success 44.4%
SEA · Elo 1656
Offense EPA/play 0.080 · Defense EPA/play -0.129
Offense success 49.5% · Defense success 42.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward PHI; negative values lean toward SEA.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
SEA · -0.152
Pressure matchup
PHI · 0.127
Explosive-play matchup
SEA · -0.024
Third-down matchup
PHI · 0.080
Red-zone matchup
SEA · -0.238
QB intelligence
SEA · -0.147
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
PHI · J.Hurts
167 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.058 · CPOE -2.2
SEA · S.Darnold
164 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.134 · CPOE -0.1
Prediction range
SEA: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
PHI: median 20, 10th–90th percentile 8–33
Recent form
SEA 14 · DEN 17
SF 32 · SEA 29
PHI 17 · JAX 19
LAC 23 · SEA 30
LA 24 · PHI 20
PHI 7 · CHI 27
SEA 31 · WAS 33
PHI 24 · TEN 20
SEA 31 · ARI 7
WAS 22 · PHI 24
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT