NFL Week 15 · Matchup Intelligence
SF at LAC
Thursday, December 17 at 8:15 PM EST
Projected score
SF 25 · LAC 19
Win probability
LAC 22.0%
SF 78.0%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
LAC · Elo 1499
Offense EPA/play -0.113 · Defense EPA/play -0.041
Offense success 43.0% · Defense success 44.0%
SF · Elo 1596
Offense EPA/play 0.074 · Defense EPA/play -0.009
Offense success 51.6% · Defense success 48.6%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward LAC; negative values lean toward SF.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
SF · -0.163
Pressure matchup
SF · -0.108
Explosive-play matchup
SF · -0.023
Third-down matchup
SF · -0.161
Red-zone matchup
SF · -0.546
QB intelligence
SF · -0.622
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
LAC · J.Herbert
235 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.260 · CPOE -4.2
SF · B.Purdy
219 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.289 · CPOE 4.3
Prediction range
SF: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–37
LAC: median 19, 10th–90th percentile 7–31
Recent form
LAC 9 · LA 24
SF 20 · ATL 29
WAS 17 · SF 23
LAC 6 · KC 22
SF 32 · SEA 29
DEN 23 · LAC 17
DEN 14 · SF 24
LAC 23 · SEA 30
ARI 30 · SF 36
LAC 16 · BUF 24
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST