NFL Week 16 · Matchup Intelligence
ARI at NO
Sunday, December 27 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
ARI 23 · NO 26
Win probability
NO 55.2%
ARI 44.8%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
ARI · Elo 1373
Offense EPA/play -0.003 · Defense EPA/play 0.020
Offense success 46.8% · Defense success 48.1%
NO · Elo 1415
Offense EPA/play -0.065 · Defense EPA/play -0.034
Offense success 44.0% · Defense success 45.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward NO; negative values lean toward ARI.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
NO · 0.006
Pressure matchup
NO · 0.046
Explosive-play matchup
ARI · -0.006
Third-down matchup
NO · 0.060
Red-zone matchup
ARI · -0.036
QB intelligence
NO · 0.133
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
ARI · J.Brissett
324 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.075 · CPOE -0.3
NO · T.Shough
289 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.018 · CPOE -0.1
Prediction range
ARI: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–36
NO: median 26, 10th–90th percentile 14–38
Recent form
ARI 33 · DAL 30
DEN 30 · ARI 16
PIT 16 · NO 10
ARI 18 · LA 16
NO 34 · NYG 27
DET 45 · ARI 21
MIN 23 · NO 13
ATL 45 · NO 24
ARI 24 · NYG 36
LV 35 · NO 27
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST