NFL Week 16 · Matchup Intelligence
ARI at NO
Sunday, December 27 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
ARI 24 · NO 27
Win probability
NO 57.9%
ARI 42.1%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
ARI · Elo 1373
Offense EPA/play -0.003 · Defense EPA/play 0.020
Offense success 46.8% · Defense success 48.1%
NO · Elo 1415
Offense EPA/play -0.065 · Defense EPA/play -0.034
Offense success 44.0% · Defense success 45.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward NO; negative values lean toward ARI.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
NO · 0.011
Pressure matchup
NO · 0.018
Explosive-play matchup
NO · 0.015
Third-down matchup
NO · 0.029
Red-zone matchup
ARI · -0.169
QB intelligence
NO · 0.005
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
ARI · J.Brissett
211 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.020 · CPOE 2.0
NO · T.Shough
219 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.023 · CPOE 1.9
Prediction range
ARI: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–36
NO: median 27, 10th–90th percentile 15–39
Recent form
DET 45 · ARI 21
MIN 23 · NO 13
ATL 45 · NO 24
ARI 24 · NYG 36
LV 35 · NO 27
ARI 30 · SF 36
NO 24 · BAL 17
SEA 31 · ARI 7
ARI 26 · LAC 14
NO 30 · DET 31
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT