NFL Week 16 · Matchup Intelligence
BUF at DEN
Friday, December 25 at 4:30 PM EST
Projected score
BUF 25 · DEN 23
Win probability
DEN 37.6%
BUF 62.4%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
BUF · Elo 1673
Offense EPA/play 0.181 · Defense EPA/play 0.067
Offense success 50.7% · Defense success 49.8%
DEN · Elo 1570
Offense EPA/play -0.049 · Defense EPA/play -0.020
Offense success 45.2% · Defense success 43.2%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward DEN; negative values lean toward BUF.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
BUF · -0.054
Pressure matchup
BUF · -0.030
Explosive-play matchup
BUF · -0.028
Third-down matchup
BUF · -0.121
Red-zone matchup
DEN · 0.020
QB intelligence
BUF · -0.390
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
BUF · J.Allen
151 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.280 · CPOE 5.0
DEN · B.Nix
199 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.075 · CPOE -2.4
Prediction range
BUF: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–37
DEN: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
Recent form
SEA 14 · DEN 17
BUF 37 · LA 34
DEN 23 · LAC 17
DEN 14 · SF 24
NE 29 · BUF 26
LA 26 · DEN 30
LAC 16 · BUF 24
JAX 13 · DEN 20
DET 31 · BUF 41
DEN 10 · KC 31
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT