NFL Week 16 · Matchup Intelligence
BUF at DEN
Friday, December 25 at 4:30 PM EST
Projected score
BUF 25 · DEN 24
Win probability
DEN 39.2%
BUF 60.8%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
BUF · Elo 1673
Offense EPA/play 0.181 · Defense EPA/play 0.067
Offense success 50.7% · Defense success 49.8%
DEN · Elo 1570
Offense EPA/play -0.049 · Defense EPA/play -0.020
Offense success 45.2% · Defense success 43.2%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward DEN; negative values lean toward BUF.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
BUF · -0.069
Pressure matchup
DEN · 0.004
Explosive-play matchup
BUF · -0.022
Third-down matchup
BUF · -0.113
Red-zone matchup
DEN · 0.029
QB intelligence
BUF · -0.306
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
BUF · J.Allen
222 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.268 · CPOE 4.0
DEN · B.Nix
263 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.011 · CPOE -2.6
Prediction range
BUF: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–37
DEN: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–36
Recent form
KC 24 · DEN 28
BAL 10 · BUF 36
DEN 30 · ARI 16
BUF 33 · LV 30
SEA 14 · DEN 17
BUF 37 · LA 34
DEN 23 · LAC 17
DEN 14 · SF 24
NE 29 · BUF 26
LA 26 · DEN 30
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST