NFL Week 16 · Matchup Intelligence
CAR at PIT
Sunday, December 27 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
CAR 23 · PIT 25
Win probability
PIT 53.5%
CAR 46.5%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
CAR · Elo 1384
Offense EPA/play -0.002 · Defense EPA/play 0.012
Offense success 46.3% · Defense success 47.3%
PIT · Elo 1549
Offense EPA/play -0.099 · Defense EPA/play -0.059
Offense success 43.8% · Defense success 44.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward PIT; negative values lean toward CAR.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
PIT · 0.011
Pressure matchup
CAR · -0.034
Explosive-play matchup
CAR · -0.020
Third-down matchup
CAR · -0.097
Red-zone matchup
CAR · -0.459
QB intelligence
CAR · -0.299
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
CAR · B.Young
172 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.240 · CPOE 5.7
PIT · A.Rodgers
199 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.071 · CPOE -2.5
Prediction range
CAR: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
PIT: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 12–37
Recent form
IND 22 · PIT 34
DET 26 · CAR 32
PIT 24 · CLE 27
CIN 27 · PIT 30
CAR 18 · CLE 21
CAR 34 · ATL 3
PIT 3 · NE 20
ATL 13 · PIT 20
CHI 59 · CAR 37
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT