NFL Week 16 · Matchup Intelligence
CIN at IND
Sunday, December 27 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
CIN 27 · IND 23
Win probability
IND 34.3%
CIN 65.7%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
CIN · Elo 1520
Offense EPA/play 0.017 · Defense EPA/play -0.008
Offense success 46.4% · Defense success 47.3%
IND · Elo 1438
Offense EPA/play 0.051 · Defense EPA/play 0.088
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 50.9%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward IND; negative values lean toward CIN.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
CIN · -0.106
Pressure matchup
IND · 0.023
Explosive-play matchup
IND · 0.002
Third-down matchup
CIN · -0.212
Red-zone matchup
CIN · -0.013
QB intelligence
CIN · -0.557
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
CIN · J.Burrow
281 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.242 · CPOE 9.0
IND · D.Jones
290 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.182 · CPOE -3.7
Prediction range
CIN: median 27, 10th–90th percentile 15–39
IND: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–36
Recent form
TEN 36 · CIN 43
IND 7 · JAX 42
CIN 35 · BAL 13
IND 10 · MIN 16
TEN 26 · IND 20
CIN 31 · MIA 24
IND 22 · PIT 34
JAX 22 · CIN 17
IND 30 · WAS 13
CIN 27 · PIT 30
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST