NFL Week 16 · Matchup Intelligence
CIN at IND
Sunday, December 27 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
CIN 25 · IND 25
Win probability
IND 49.4%
CIN 50.6%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
CIN · Elo 1520
Offense EPA/play 0.017 · Defense EPA/play -0.008
Offense success 46.4% · Defense success 47.3%
IND · Elo 1438
Offense EPA/play 0.051 · Defense EPA/play 0.088
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 50.9%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward IND; negative values lean toward CIN.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
CIN · -0.005
Pressure matchup
IND · 0.056
Explosive-play matchup
IND · 0.016
Third-down matchup
CIN · -0.190
Red-zone matchup
IND · 0.332
QB intelligence
CIN · -0.339
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
CIN · J.Burrow
198 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.166 · CPOE 6.0
IND · D.Jones
185 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.130 · CPOE -2.4
Prediction range
CIN: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–38
IND: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–37
Recent form
CIN 31 · MIA 24
IND 22 · PIT 34
JAX 22 · CIN 17
IND 30 · WAS 13
HOU 17 · IND 19
CIN 27 · PIT 30
CIN 20 · HOU 6
IND 30 · KC 33
BAL 41 · IND 23
TB 27 · CIN 33
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT