NFL Week 16 · Matchup Intelligence

GB at CHI

Friday, December 25 at 1:00 PM EST

Projected score

GB 21 · CHI 23

Win probability

CHI 55.2%

GB 44.8%

Tie 0.0%

Injury impact

No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.

Weather Prediction

No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.

Team strength snapshot

CHI · Elo 1486

Offense EPA/play 0.119 · Defense EPA/play 0.039

Offense success 49.3% · Defense success 47.8%

GB · Elo 1558

Offense EPA/play 0.022 · Defense EPA/play 0.032

Offense success 46.2% · Defense success 46.0%

Matchup Advantage Matrix

Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward CHI; negative values lean toward GB.

Opponent-adjusted EPA

CHI · 0.044

Pressure matchup

CHI · 0.023

Explosive-play matchup

GB · -0.025

Third-down matchup

GB · -0.020

Red-zone matchup

GB · -0.222

QB intelligence

GB · -0.059

Injury availability

Even · 0.000

Quarterback comparison

CHI · T.Bagent

68 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.077 · CPOE 1.3

GB · J.Love

196 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.110 · CPOE -3.1

Prediction range

GB: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–33

CHI: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–36

Recent form

CHI 7 · GB 31

NYJ 12 · CHI 23

GB 17 · TB 14

PHI 7 · CHI 27

ATL 35 · GB 14

GB 20 · NYJ 17

MIN 9 · CHI 3

GB 22 · MIN 39

CHI 59 · CAR 37

Model context

BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.

Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT