NFL Week 16 · Matchup Intelligence
GB at CHI
Friday, December 25 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
GB 21 · CHI 24
Win probability
CHI 63.0%
GB 37.0%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
CHI · Elo 1486
Offense EPA/play 0.119 · Defense EPA/play 0.039
Offense success 49.3% · Defense success 47.8%
GB · Elo 1558
Offense EPA/play 0.022 · Defense EPA/play 0.032
Offense success 46.2% · Defense success 46.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward CHI; negative values lean toward GB.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
CHI · 0.087
Pressure matchup
GB · -0.001
Explosive-play matchup
GB · -0.021
Third-down matchup
GB · -0.083
Red-zone matchup
CHI · 0.031
QB intelligence
CHI · 0.019
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
CHI · C.Williams
171 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.289 · CPOE 7.6
GB · J.Love
327 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.141 · CPOE -1.1
Prediction range
GB: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–33
CHI: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–37
Recent form
CHI 34 · SEA 17
CAR 19 · GB 27
GB 17 · DET 20
NE 24 · CHI 30
DAL 13 · GB 23
CHI 31 · ATL 23
CHI 7 · GB 31
NYJ 12 · CHI 23
GB 17 · TB 14
PHI 7 · CHI 27
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST