NFL Week 16 · Matchup Intelligence
HOU at PHI
Thursday, December 24 at 8:15 PM EST
Projected score
HOU 22 · PHI 21
Win probability
PHI 47.7%
HOU 52.3%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
HOU · Elo 1533
Offense EPA/play -0.042 · Defense EPA/play -0.046
Offense success 44.1% · Defense success 40.6%
PHI · Elo 1643
Offense EPA/play 0.021 · Defense EPA/play -0.032
Offense success 44.5% · Defense success 44.4%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward PHI; negative values lean toward HOU.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
HOU · -0.052
Pressure matchup
PHI · 0.051
Explosive-play matchup
HOU · -0.009
Third-down matchup
HOU · -0.014
Red-zone matchup
HOU · -0.003
QB intelligence
HOU · -0.232
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
HOU · C.Stroud
199 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.089 · CPOE 2.5
PHI · J.Hurts
167 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.058 · CPOE -2.2
Prediction range
HOU: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
PHI: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–33
Recent form
HOU 26 · TEN 3
PHI 17 · JAX 19
DAL 34 · HOU 30
LA 24 · PHI 20
PHI 7 · CHI 27
HOU 17 · IND 19
CIN 20 · HOU 6
PHI 24 · TEN 20
WAS 22 · PHI 24
BUF 36 · HOU 31
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT