NFL Week 16 · Matchup Intelligence
JAX at DAL
Sunday, December 27 at 8:20 PM EST
Projected score
JAX 25 · DAL 23
Win probability
DAL 40.7%
JAX 59.3%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
DAL · Elo 1481
Offense EPA/play 0.105 · Defense EPA/play 0.159
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 52.2%
JAX · Elo 1481
Offense EPA/play 0.085 · Defense EPA/play -0.036
Offense success 51.4% · Defense success 45.5%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward DAL; negative values lean toward JAX.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
JAX · -0.168
Pressure matchup
DAL · 0.034
Explosive-play matchup
JAX · -0.017
Third-down matchup
DAL · 0.093
Red-zone matchup
DAL · 0.553
QB intelligence
JAX · -0.081
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
DAL · D.Prescott
200 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.227 · CPOE 1.9
JAX · T.Lawrence
154 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.272 · CPOE 5.9
Prediction range
JAX: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–38
DAL: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
Recent form
PHI 17 · JAX 19
TB 24 · DAL 16
JAX 22 · CIN 17
DAL 34 · HOU 30
BAL 34 · DAL 31
NE 6 · JAX 35
JAX 13 · DEN 20
WAS 20 · DAL 37
DAL 20 · NYG 28
CLE 10 · JAX 34
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT