NFL Week 16 · Matchup Intelligence
LAC at MIA
Sunday, December 27 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
LAC 20 · MIA 22
Win probability
MIA 51.9%
LAC 48.1%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
LAC · Elo 1499
Offense EPA/play -0.113 · Defense EPA/play -0.041
Offense success 43.0% · Defense success 44.0%
MIA · Elo 1461
Offense EPA/play -0.052 · Defense EPA/play 0.096
Offense success 44.3% · Defense success 50.6%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward MIA; negative values lean toward LAC.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
LAC · -0.062
Pressure matchup
MIA · 0.087
Explosive-play matchup
LAC · -0.005
Third-down matchup
MIA · 0.178
Red-zone matchup
MIA · 0.314
QB intelligence
MIA · 0.194
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
LAC · J.Herbert
235 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.260 · CPOE -4.2
MIA · M.Willis
206 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.070 · CPOE -5.4
Prediction range
LAC: median 20, 10th–90th percentile 8–32
MIA: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
Recent form
NE 24 · MIA 19
LAC 9 · LA 24
MIA 28 · NYJ 25
LAC 6 · KC 22
DEN 23 · LAC 17
CIN 31 · MIA 24
LAC 23 · SEA 30
MIA 10 · MIN 15
LAC 16 · BUF 24
KC 24 · MIA 10
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST