NFL Week 16 · Matchup Intelligence
LAC at MIA
Sunday, December 27 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
LAC 22 · MIA 21
Win probability
MIA 45.2%
LAC 54.8%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
LAC · Elo 1499
Offense EPA/play -0.113 · Defense EPA/play -0.041
Offense success 43.0% · Defense success 44.0%
MIA · Elo 1461
Offense EPA/play -0.052 · Defense EPA/play 0.096
Offense success 44.3% · Defense success 50.6%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward MIA; negative values lean toward LAC.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
LAC · -0.105
Pressure matchup
MIA · 0.122
Explosive-play matchup
MIA · 0.003
Third-down matchup
MIA · 0.138
Red-zone matchup
MIA · 0.052
QB intelligence
LAC · -0.047
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
LAC · J.Herbert
160 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.193 · CPOE -4.5
MIA · M.Willis
145 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.199 · CPOE -7.3
Prediction range
LAC: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
MIA: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–33
Recent form
DEN 23 · LAC 17
CIN 31 · MIA 24
LAC 23 · SEA 30
MIA 10 · MIN 15
KC 24 · MIA 10
LAC 16 · BUF 24
LV 26 · LAC 14
MIA 13 · SF 35
MIA 13 · LV 27
ARI 26 · LAC 14
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT