NFL Week 16 · Matchup Intelligence
LA at SEA
Friday, December 25 at 8:15 PM EST
Projected score
LA 22 · SEA 25
Win probability
SEA 59.1%
LA 40.9%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
LA · Elo 1591
Offense EPA/play 0.040 · Defense EPA/play 0.025
Offense success 50.4% · Defense success 48.9%
SEA · Elo 1656
Offense EPA/play 0.080 · Defense EPA/play -0.129
Offense success 49.5% · Defense success 42.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward SEA; negative values lean toward LA.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
SEA · 0.080
Pressure matchup
LA · -0.097
Explosive-play matchup
LA · -0.003
Third-down matchup
LA · -0.091
Red-zone matchup
SEA · 0.244
QB intelligence
LA · -0.107
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
LA · M.Stafford
224 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.142 · CPOE 0.3
SEA · S.Darnold
164 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.134 · CPOE -0.1
Prediction range
LA: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
SEA: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–38
Recent form
SEA 14 · DEN 17
BUF 37 · LA 34
SF 32 · SEA 29
LAC 23 · SEA 30
LA 24 · PHI 20
LA 26 · DEN 30
SEA 31 · WAS 33
NYG 6 · LA 28
SEA 31 · ARI 7
SF 27 · LA 7
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT