NFL Week 16 · Matchup Intelligence
NE at NYJ
Sunday, December 27 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
NE 24 · NYJ 21
Win probability
NYJ 30.0%
NE 70.0%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
NE · Elo 1544
Offense EPA/play 0.009 · Defense EPA/play -0.096
Offense success 46.6% · Defense success 44.3%
NYJ · Elo 1337
Offense EPA/play -0.047 · Defense EPA/play 0.030
Offense success 44.9% · Defense success 47.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward NYJ; negative values lean toward NE.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
NE · -0.166
Pressure matchup
NE · -0.009
Explosive-play matchup
NE · -0.013
Third-down matchup
NE · -0.005
Red-zone matchup
NYJ · 0.376
QB intelligence
NE · -0.146
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
NE · D.Maye
251 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.209 · CPOE 7.3
NYJ · G.Smith
265 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.146 · CPOE 6.0
Prediction range
NE: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–37
NYJ: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–33
Recent form
NE 24 · MIA 19
LV 38 · NYJ 33
MIA 28 · NYJ 25
NE 24 · CHI 30
NYJ 19 · NE 26
CLE 12 · NYJ 17
LV 17 · NE 45
NE 29 · BUF 26
NYJ 12 · CHI 23
NE 6 · JAX 35
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST