NFL Week 16 · Matchup Intelligence
NYG at DET
Monday, December 28 at 8:15 PM EST
Projected score
NYG 22 · DET 29
Win probability
DET 78.4%
NYG 21.6%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
DET · Elo 1592
Offense EPA/play 0.079 · Defense EPA/play 0.077
Offense success 49.8% · Defense success 48.0%
NYG · Elo 1359
Offense EPA/play 0.003 · Defense EPA/play 0.088
Offense success 45.6% · Defense success 49.2%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward DET; negative values lean toward NYG.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
DET · 0.118
Pressure matchup
NYG · -0.027
Explosive-play matchup
DET · 0.006
Third-down matchup
DET · 0.029
Red-zone matchup
DET · 0.340
QB intelligence
DET · 0.327
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
DET · J.Goff
202 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.323 · CPOE 1.3
NYG · J.Winston
144 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.057 · CPOE -5.9
Prediction range
NYG: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–35
DET: median 29, 10th–90th percentile 17–41
Recent form
DET 45 · ARI 21
NYG 27 · WAS 27
DET 26 · CAR 32
ARI 24 · NYG 36
TEN 7 · NYG 12
NYJ 24 · DET 31
NYG 6 · LA 28
DET 31 · BUF 41
DAL 20 · NYG 28
NO 30 · DET 31
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT