NFL Week 16 · Matchup Intelligence
SF at KC
Sunday, December 27 at 4:25 PM EST
Projected score
SF 23 · KC 22
Win probability
KC 44.6%
SF 55.4%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
KC · Elo 1621
Offense EPA/play 0.055 · Defense EPA/play -0.008
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 47.5%
SF · Elo 1596
Offense EPA/play 0.074 · Defense EPA/play -0.009
Offense success 51.6% · Defense success 48.6%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward KC; negative values lean toward SF.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
SF · -0.044
Pressure matchup
SF · -0.061
Explosive-play matchup
SF · -0.015
Third-down matchup
SF · -0.078
Red-zone matchup
SF · -0.565
QB intelligence
SF · -0.214
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
KC · P.Mahomes
242 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.138 · CPOE 1.6
SF · B.Purdy
219 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.289 · CPOE 4.3
Prediction range
SF: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
KC: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
Recent form
KC 24 · DEN 28
KC 3 · SEA 20
SF 20 · ATL 29
WAS 17 · SF 23
LAC 6 · KC 22
SF 32 · SEA 29
DEN 14 · SF 24
KC 30 · LV 27
ARI 30 · SF 36
KC 24 · MIA 10
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST