NFL Week 16 · Matchup Intelligence
TB at ATL
Sunday, December 27 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
TB 21 · ATL 24
Win probability
ATL 64.4%
TB 35.6%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
ATL · Elo 1430
Offense EPA/play -0.168 · Defense EPA/play -0.030
Offense success 43.0% · Defense success 45.1%
TB · Elo 1489
Offense EPA/play 0.004 · Defense EPA/play 0.029
Offense success 48.1% · Defense success 49.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward ATL; negative values lean toward TB.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
ATL · 0.032
Pressure matchup
TB · -0.049
Explosive-play matchup
ATL · 0.014
Third-down matchup
ATL · 0.053
Red-zone matchup
ATL · 0.056
QB intelligence
ATL · 0.086
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
ATL · M.Penix
82 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.339 · CPOE 1.1
TB · B.Mayfield
109 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.274 · CPOE 0.3
Prediction range
TB: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–33
ATL: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–37
Recent form
BAL 30 · ATL 23
TB 24 · DAL 16
ATL 45 · NO 24
GB 17 · TB 14
MIN 23 · TB 16
ATL 35 · GB 14
CAR 34 · ATL 3
CLE 23 · TB 19
TB 27 · CIN 33
ATL 13 · PIT 20
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT