NFL Week 16 · Matchup Intelligence
TEN at LV
Sunday, December 27 at 4:05 PM EST
Projected score
TEN 22 · LV 26
Win probability
LV 65.9%
TEN 34.1%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
LV · Elo 1358
Offense EPA/play -0.117 · Defense EPA/play -0.041
Offense success 43.6% · Defense success 44.0%
TEN · Elo 1309
Offense EPA/play -0.086 · Defense EPA/play 0.075
Offense success 44.4% · Defense success 47.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward LV; negative values lean toward TEN.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
LV · 0.069
Pressure matchup
TEN · -0.060
Explosive-play matchup
LV · 0.007
Third-down matchup
LV · 0.036
Red-zone matchup
TEN · -0.039
QB intelligence
LV · 0.275
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
LV · K.Cousins
299 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.184 · CPOE -0.4
TEN · C.Ward
263 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.074 · CPOE -0.9
Prediction range
TEN: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
LV: median 26, 10th–90th percentile 14–38
Recent form
TEN 36 · CIN 43
LV 38 · NYJ 33
LA 35 · LV 21
CLE 27 · TEN 24
BUF 33 · LV 30
TEN 26 · IND 20
LV 17 · NE 45
HOU 26 · TEN 3
KC 30 · LV 27
TEN 18 · BAL 24
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST