NFL Week 16 · Matchup Intelligence
WAS at MIN
Sunday, December 27 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
WAS 18 · MIN 24
Win probability
MIN 71.3%
WAS 28.7%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
MIN · Elo 1583
Offense EPA/play -0.031 · Defense EPA/play -0.092
Offense success 44.5% · Defense success 43.3%
WAS · Elo 1445
Offense EPA/play 0.020 · Defense EPA/play 0.122
Offense success 47.9% · Defense success 50.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward MIN; negative values lean toward WAS.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
MIN · 0.106
Pressure matchup
WAS · -0.082
Explosive-play matchup
MIN · 0.011
Third-down matchup
WAS · -0.092
Red-zone matchup
WAS · -0.563
QB intelligence
WAS · -0.040
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
MIN · K.Murray
170 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.059 · CPOE 2.0
WAS · J.Daniels
159 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.043 · CPOE 5.6
Prediction range
WAS: median 18, 10th–90th percentile 6–30
MIN: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–36
Recent form
PHI 10 · WAS 27
MIN 15 · DET 19
IND 10 · MIN 16
WAS 17 · SF 23
MIN 23 · NO 13
NYG 27 · WAS 27
MIA 10 · MIN 15
IND 30 · WAS 13
MIN 23 · TB 16
SEA 31 · WAS 33
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST