NFL Week 17 · Matchup Intelligence
BAL at CIN
Thursday, December 31 at 8:15 PM EST
Projected score
BAL 22 · CIN 27
Win probability
CIN 66.7%
BAL 33.3%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
BAL · Elo 1591
Offense EPA/play 0.084 · Defense EPA/play -0.018
Offense success 48.9% · Defense success 46.2%
CIN · Elo 1520
Offense EPA/play 0.017 · Defense EPA/play -0.008
Offense success 46.4% · Defense success 47.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward CIN; negative values lean toward BAL.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
CIN · 0.097
Pressure matchup
CIN · 0.008
Explosive-play matchup
BAL · -0.012
Third-down matchup
CIN · 0.181
Red-zone matchup
BAL · -0.052
QB intelligence
CIN · 0.174
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
BAL · T.Huntley
122 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.020 · CPOE 0.9
CIN · J.Burrow
281 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.242 · CPOE 9.0
Prediction range
BAL: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–35
CIN: median 27, 10th–90th percentile 15–40
Recent form
TEN 36 · CIN 43
BAL 10 · BUF 36
CIN 35 · BAL 13
BAL 10 · CLE 13
BAL 30 · ATL 23
CIN 31 · MIA 24
JAX 22 · CIN 17
TEN 18 · BAL 24
BAL 34 · DAL 31
CIN 27 · PIT 30
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST