NFL Week 17 · Matchup Intelligence
BUF at MIA
Sunday, January 3 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
BUF 28 · MIA 21
Win probability
MIA 20.0%
BUF 80.0%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
BUF · Elo 1673
Offense EPA/play 0.181 · Defense EPA/play 0.067
Offense success 50.7% · Defense success 49.8%
MIA · Elo 1461
Offense EPA/play -0.052 · Defense EPA/play 0.096
Offense success 44.3% · Defense success 50.6%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward MIA; negative values lean toward BUF.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
BUF · -0.269
Pressure matchup
MIA · 0.045
Explosive-play matchup
BUF · -0.024
Third-down matchup
MIA · 0.022
Red-zone matchup
BUF · -0.092
QB intelligence
BUF · -0.374
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
BUF · J.Allen
222 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.268 · CPOE 4.0
MIA · M.Willis
206 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.070 · CPOE -5.4
Prediction range
BUF: median 28, 10th–90th percentile 16–40
MIA: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–34
Recent form
NE 24 · MIA 19
BAL 10 · BUF 36
MIA 28 · NYJ 25
BUF 33 · LV 30
BUF 37 · LA 34
CIN 31 · MIA 24
MIA 10 · MIN 15
NE 29 · BUF 26
KC 24 · MIA 10
LAC 16 · BUF 24
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST