NFL Week 17 · Matchup Intelligence
DEN at NE
Sunday, January 3 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
DEN 20 · NE 23
Win probability
NE 64.4%
DEN 35.6%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
DEN · Elo 1570
Offense EPA/play -0.049 · Defense EPA/play -0.020
Offense success 45.2% · Defense success 43.2%
NE · Elo 1544
Offense EPA/play 0.009 · Defense EPA/play -0.096
Offense success 46.6% · Defense success 44.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward NE; negative values lean toward DEN.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
NE · 0.006
Pressure matchup
NE · 0.002
Explosive-play matchup
NE · 0.020
Third-down matchup
NE · 0.030
Red-zone matchup
DEN · -0.642
QB intelligence
NE · 0.306
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
DEN · B.Nix
263 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.011 · CPOE -2.6
NE · D.Maye
251 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.209 · CPOE 7.3
Prediction range
DEN: median 20, 10th–90th percentile 8–32
NE: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–36
Recent form
KC 24 · DEN 28
NE 24 · MIA 19
DEN 30 · ARI 16
NE 24 · CHI 30
NYJ 19 · NE 26
SEA 14 · DEN 17
DEN 23 · LAC 17
LV 17 · NE 45
DEN 14 · SF 24
NE 29 · BUF 26
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST