NFL Week 17 · Matchup Intelligence
DET at CHI
Sunday, January 3 at 4:25 PM EST
Projected score
DET 26 · CHI 25
Win probability
CHI 47.5%
DET 52.5%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
CHI · Elo 1486
Offense EPA/play 0.119 · Defense EPA/play 0.039
Offense success 49.3% · Defense success 47.8%
DET · Elo 1592
Offense EPA/play 0.079 · Defense EPA/play 0.077
Offense success 49.8% · Defense success 48.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward CHI; negative values lean toward DET.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
DET · -0.003
Pressure matchup
CHI · 0.046
Explosive-play matchup
CHI · 0.002
Third-down matchup
DET · -0.121
Red-zone matchup
DET · -0.427
QB intelligence
DET · -0.241
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
CHI · T.Bagent
68 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.077 · CPOE 1.3
DET · J.Goff
202 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.323 · CPOE 1.3
Prediction range
DET: median 26, 10th–90th percentile 14–38
CHI: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–37
Recent form
DET 45 · ARI 21
CHI 7 · GB 31
DET 26 · CAR 32
NYJ 12 · CHI 23
PHI 7 · CHI 27
NYJ 24 · DET 31
MIN 9 · CHI 3
DET 31 · BUF 41
NO 30 · DET 31
CHI 59 · CAR 37
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT