NFL Week 17 · Matchup Intelligence
HOU at GB
Monday, January 4 at 8:15 PM EST
Projected score
HOU 21 · GB 22
Win probability
GB 53.7%
HOU 46.3%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
GB · Elo 1558
Offense EPA/play 0.022 · Defense EPA/play 0.032
Offense success 46.2% · Defense success 46.0%
HOU · Elo 1533
Offense EPA/play -0.042 · Defense EPA/play -0.046
Offense success 44.1% · Defense success 40.6%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward GB; negative values lean toward HOU.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
HOU · -0.038
Pressure matchup
HOU · -0.020
Explosive-play matchup
GB · 0.018
Third-down matchup
HOU · -0.008
Red-zone matchup
GB · 0.106
QB intelligence
GB · 0.010
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
GB · J.Love
196 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.110 · CPOE -3.1
HOU · C.Stroud
199 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.089 · CPOE 2.5
Prediction range
HOU: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–34
GB: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–35
Recent form
HOU 26 · TEN 3
CHI 7 · GB 31
DAL 34 · HOU 30
GB 17 · TB 14
HOU 17 · IND 19
ATL 35 · GB 14
CIN 20 · HOU 6
GB 20 · NYJ 17
GB 22 · MIN 39
BUF 36 · HOU 31
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT