NFL Week 17 · Matchup Intelligence
HOU at GB
Monday, January 4 at 8:15 PM EST
Projected score
HOU 21 · GB 23
Win probability
GB 58.5%
HOU 41.5%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
GB · Elo 1558
Offense EPA/play 0.022 · Defense EPA/play 0.032
Offense success 46.2% · Defense success 46.0%
HOU · Elo 1533
Offense EPA/play -0.042 · Defense EPA/play -0.046
Offense success 44.1% · Defense success 40.6%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward GB; negative values lean toward HOU.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
HOU · -0.015
Pressure matchup
HOU · -0.011
Explosive-play matchup
GB · 0.029
Third-down matchup
GB · 0.010
Red-zone matchup
HOU · -0.182
QB intelligence
GB · 0.018
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
GB · J.Love
327 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.141 · CPOE -1.1
HOU · C.Stroud
263 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.119 · CPOE 2.3
Prediction range
HOU: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–33
GB: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–36
Recent form
CAR 19 · GB 27
GB 17 · DET 20
NYG 27 · HOU 21
DAL 13 · GB 23
HOU 34 · JAX 31
CHI 7 · GB 31
HOU 26 · TEN 3
DAL 34 · HOU 30
GB 17 · TB 14
HOU 17 · IND 19
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST