NFL Week 17 · Matchup Intelligence
IND at CLE
Sunday, January 3 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
IND 21 · CLE 23
Win probability
CLE 56.0%
IND 44.0%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
CLE · Elo 1411
Offense EPA/play -0.108 · Defense EPA/play 0.003
Offense success 42.2% · Defense success 47.5%
IND · Elo 1438
Offense EPA/play 0.051 · Defense EPA/play 0.088
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 50.9%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward CLE; negative values lean toward IND.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
IND · -0.021
Pressure matchup
IND · -0.068
Explosive-play matchup
CLE · 0.011
Third-down matchup
IND · -0.027
Red-zone matchup
IND · -0.125
QB intelligence
CLE · 0.181
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
CLE · D.Watson
283 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.016 · CPOE -0.1
IND · D.Jones
290 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.182 · CPOE -3.7
Prediction range
IND: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–33
CLE: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
Recent form
IND 7 · JAX 42
CLE 6 · PIT 27
IND 10 · MIN 16
CLE 27 · TEN 24
BAL 10 · CLE 13
TEN 26 · IND 20
IND 22 · PIT 34
CLE 12 · NYJ 17
IND 30 · WAS 13
PIT 24 · CLE 27
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST