NFL Week 17 · Matchup Intelligence
KC at LAC
Sunday, January 3 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
KC 22 · LAC 18
Win probability
LAC 30.6%
KC 69.4%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
KC · Elo 1621
Offense EPA/play 0.055 · Defense EPA/play -0.008
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 47.5%
LAC · Elo 1499
Offense EPA/play -0.113 · Defense EPA/play -0.041
Offense success 43.0% · Defense success 44.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward LAC; negative values lean toward KC.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
KC · -0.120
Pressure matchup
KC · -0.047
Explosive-play matchup
KC · -0.008
Third-down matchup
KC · -0.083
Red-zone matchup
LAC · 0.019
QB intelligence
KC · -0.408
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
KC · P.Mahomes
242 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.138 · CPOE 1.6
LAC · J.Herbert
235 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.260 · CPOE -4.2
Prediction range
KC: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–35
LAC: median 18, 10th–90th percentile 6–31
Recent form
KC 24 · DEN 28
LAC 9 · LA 24
KC 3 · SEA 20
LAC 6 · KC 22
DEN 23 · LAC 17
LAC 23 · SEA 30
KC 30 · LV 27
KC 24 · MIA 10
LAC 16 · BUF 24
IND 30 · KC 33
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST