NFL Week 17 · Matchup Intelligence
LA at TB
Sunday, January 3 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
LA 23 · TB 21
Win probability
TB 40.2%
LA 59.8%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
LA · Elo 1591
Offense EPA/play 0.040 · Defense EPA/play 0.025
Offense success 50.4% · Defense success 48.9%
TB · Elo 1489
Offense EPA/play 0.004 · Defense EPA/play 0.029
Offense success 48.1% · Defense success 49.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward TB; negative values lean toward LA.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
TB · 0.005
Pressure matchup
TB · 0.010
Explosive-play matchup
LA · -0.006
Third-down matchup
TB · 0.000
Red-zone matchup
LA · -0.178
QB intelligence
LA · -0.445
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
LA · M.Stafford
317 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.094 · CPOE 0.6
TB · B.Mayfield
124 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.248 · CPOE -0.9
Prediction range
LA: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–36
TB: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–34
Recent form
LAC 9 · LA 24
ATL 0 · TB 16
LA 35 · LV 21
TB 43 · CAR 13
ARI 18 · LA 16
PIT 26 · TB 19
BUF 37 · LA 34
TB 24 · DAL 16
LA 24 · PHI 20
GB 17 · TB 14
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST