NFL Week 17 · Matchup Intelligence
LA at TB
Sunday, January 3 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
LA 25 · TB 22
Win probability
TB 32.5%
LA 67.5%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
LA · Elo 1591
Offense EPA/play 0.040 · Defense EPA/play 0.025
Offense success 50.4% · Defense success 48.9%
TB · Elo 1489
Offense EPA/play 0.004 · Defense EPA/play 0.029
Offense success 48.1% · Defense success 49.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward TB; negative values lean toward LA.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
LA · -0.106
Pressure matchup
TB · 0.034
Explosive-play matchup
LA · -0.028
Third-down matchup
TB · 0.007
Red-zone matchup
TB · 0.091
QB intelligence
LA · -0.274
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
LA · M.Stafford
224 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.142 · CPOE 0.3
TB · B.Mayfield
109 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.274 · CPOE 0.3
Prediction range
LA: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–37
TB: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
Recent form
BUF 37 · LA 34
TB 24 · DAL 16
LA 24 · PHI 20
GB 17 · TB 14
LA 26 · DEN 30
MIN 23 · TB 16
NYG 6 · LA 28
CLE 23 · TB 19
TB 27 · CIN 33
SF 27 · LA 7
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT