NFL Week 17 · Matchup Intelligence
LV at ARI
Sunday, January 3 at 4:05 PM EST
Projected score
LV 25 · ARI 26
Win probability
ARI 50.5%
LV 49.5%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
ARI · Elo 1373
Offense EPA/play -0.003 · Defense EPA/play 0.020
Offense success 46.8% · Defense success 48.1%
LV · Elo 1358
Offense EPA/play -0.117 · Defense EPA/play -0.041
Offense success 43.6% · Defense success 44.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward ARI; negative values lean toward LV.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
LV · -0.036
Pressure matchup
ARI · 0.026
Explosive-play matchup
LV · -0.008
Third-down matchup
LV · -0.014
Red-zone matchup
LV · -0.079
QB intelligence
LV · -0.333
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
ARI · J.Brissett
324 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.075 · CPOE -0.3
LV · K.Cousins
299 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.184 · CPOE -0.4
Prediction range
LV: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–38
ARI: median 26, 10th–90th percentile 14–38
Recent form
ARI 33 · DAL 30
LV 38 · NYJ 33
LA 35 · LV 21
DEN 30 · ARI 16
BUF 33 · LV 30
ARI 18 · LA 16
DET 45 · ARI 21
LV 17 · NE 45
KC 30 · LV 27
ARI 24 · NYG 36
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST