NFL Week 17 · Matchup Intelligence
MIN at NYJ
Sunday, January 3 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
MIN 22 · NYJ 18
Win probability
NYJ 31.1%
MIN 68.9%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
MIN · Elo 1583
Offense EPA/play -0.031 · Defense EPA/play -0.092
Offense success 44.5% · Defense success 43.3%
NYJ · Elo 1337
Offense EPA/play -0.047 · Defense EPA/play 0.030
Offense success 44.9% · Defense success 47.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward NYJ; negative values lean toward MIN.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
MIN · -0.181
Pressure matchup
NYJ · 0.048
Explosive-play matchup
MIN · -0.013
Third-down matchup
NYJ · 0.058
Red-zone matchup
NYJ · 0.415
QB intelligence
MIN · -0.023
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
MIN · K.Murray
110 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.076 · CPOE 5.7
NYJ · G.Smith
165 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.053 · CPOE 4.4
Prediction range
MIN: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
NYJ: median 18, 10th–90th percentile 6–30
Recent form
MIN 23 · NO 13
CLE 12 · NYJ 17
MIA 10 · MIN 15
NYJ 12 · CHI 23
MIN 23 · TB 16
NYJ 24 · DET 31
GB 20 · NYJ 17
MIN 9 · CHI 3
NYJ 23 · TEN 10
GB 22 · MIN 39
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT