NFL Week 17 · Matchup Intelligence
NO at ATL
Sunday, January 3 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
NO 22 · ATL 26
Win probability
ATL 69.2%
NO 30.8%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
ATL · Elo 1430
Offense EPA/play -0.168 · Defense EPA/play -0.030
Offense success 43.0% · Defense success 45.1%
NO · Elo 1415
Offense EPA/play -0.065 · Defense EPA/play -0.034
Offense success 44.0% · Defense success 45.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward ATL; negative values lean toward NO.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
ATL · 0.085
Pressure matchup
NO · -0.015
Explosive-play matchup
ATL · 0.017
Third-down matchup
NO · -0.041
Red-zone matchup
ATL · 0.127
QB intelligence
ATL · 0.017
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
ATL · M.Penix
82 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.339 · CPOE 1.1
NO · T.Shough
219 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.023 · CPOE 1.9
Prediction range
NO: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
ATL: median 26, 10th–90th percentile 14–39
Recent form
BAL 30 · ATL 23
MIN 23 · NO 13
ATL 45 · NO 24
LV 35 · NO 27
ATL 35 · GB 14
CAR 34 · ATL 3
NO 24 · BAL 17
NO 30 · DET 31
ATL 13 · PIT 20
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT